Autore: Pradelli, Juan José
Titolo: Crises and post-crisis growth in Italy: a historical comparison
Periodico: Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Note tematiche
Anno: 2010 - Volume: 8 - Fascicolo: 6 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 23

The note compares crisis episodes in Italy in terms of post-crisis medium-term output growth. The oil shock in the 1970s, the collapse of the European Monetary System in the 1990s, and the current crisis are characterised according to whether initial shocks hit aggregate supply or demand, since the nature of the shock influences the pattern of recovery in the aftermath. The note then assesses the plausibility of the medium-term recovery envisaged by the RPP 2010 on the basis of the characterisation of the current crisis, the projections elaborated by OECD and the European Commission, alternative growth scenarios, and the forecast obtained from statistical models of productivity and capacity utilisation dynamics


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Testo completo: http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/note_tematiche/NT_-_Crisis_and_post-crisis_growth_in_Italy_an_historical_comparison.pdf

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