Autori:
Bernasconi, Michele ,
Paruolo, Paolo ,
Kirchkamp, Oliver Titolo:
Expectations and perceived causality in fiscal policy: an experimental analysis using real world dataPeriodico:
Università degli Studi dell'Insubria. Dipartimento di Economia. Quaderni di ricercaAnno:
2002 - Fascicolo:
42 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
51We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory
experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We
estimate an econometric model of individual expectations for fiscal policy, which
nests various theories of expectations-forming and encompasses both micro- and
macro- economic lines of research on fiscal policy. Agents' expectations are found
neither to be consistent with rational nor with purely adaptive expectations. Expectations follow an augmented-adaptive scheme, which embodies the `spend and tax
hypothesis' on the relationship between taxes and expenditure to a greater extent
than in real world data. We relate this findings to current research on the effects of fiscal policy. Methodological implications of the present approach for experiments in macroeconomics are also discussed.
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