Autore: Di Maro, Vincenzo
Titolo: The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian evidence
Periodico: Università degli Studi di Napoli 'Parthenope' - Istituto di Studi Economici. Working paper
Anno: 2002 - Volume: 6 - Fascicolo: 7 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 40

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spano’s terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems affecting standard structural approach. In particular the paper investigates wheather permanent employment shift across the Italian industrial sector [measured by the Neumann and Topel (1991)’s employment based dispersion index] has an effect on unemployment. Among the findings of this paper we emphasize that sectoral employment shifts affect unemployment both in the long and in the short term. Moreover, we find that the effect of sectoral reallocation on the unemployment rate occurs only after some delay


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