Autori: Manfredi, Piero , Salinelli, Ernesto , d'Onofrio, Alberto
Titolo: Bifurcation thresholds in an SIR model with information-dependent vaccination.
Periodico: Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale 'A. Avogadro' : Facoltà di Economia - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Quantitativi "SEMEQ" - Quaderni
Anno: 2006 - Volume: 06 - Fascicolo: 18 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 16

Simple epidemiological models with information dependent vaccination functions can generate sustained oscillations via Hopf bifurcation of the endemic state. The onset of these oscillations depend on the shape of the vaccination function. A "global" approach is used to characterise the instability condition and identify classes of functions that always lead to stability/instability. The analysis allows the identification of an analytically determined "threshold vaccination function" having a simple interpretation: coverage functions lying always above the threshold always lead to oscillations, whereas coverage functions always below never lead to instability. Key words: SIR epidemiological models, information-dependent vaccination, stability, Hopf bifurcations


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