Autori:
Marcellino, Massimiliano ,
Artis, Michael Titolo:
Fiscal solvency and fiscal forecasting in EuropePeriodico:
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papersAnno:
1998 - Fascicolo:
2 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
41This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in thè countries of thè prospective European Monetary Union: thè solvency of their governments finances; and thè accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending thè existing methodol-ogy of soìvency tests, thè paper fìnds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of officiai short-term fiscal forecasts (those of thè OECD) is analysed using con-ventional techniques and found to be reassuring.
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