Autore: Pastori, Claudio
Titolo: Hidden Markov Models to forecast the turning points in economic trends
Periodico: Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" - Dipartimento di Studi Geoeconomici, Linguistici, Statistici e Storici per l'Analisi regionale. Working papers
Anno: 2003 - Fascicolo: 20 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 27

The trend deteriorating in Europe both within the 15 member States and for each EU State Member after the terrorist attacks of September, 11 2001, has by now become a matter of fact. In this paper, we shall deepen a methodology that re-employs the philosophy of dynamic factorial models for the estimate of a turning point indicator for economic trends, with the aim to permit an international confrontation based on the profile of this Turnig Point Indicator and the consequent opportune statistic considerations about the method proposed


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