Autore: Barrell, Ray
Titolo: How important are automatic stabilizers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment.
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 2000 - Fascicolo: 2 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 41

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies. Automatic stabilizers make output volatility fall in all countries, but such decreases, ranging from 5 to 18 per cent, are smaller than commonly believed, and display significant international variation. We also find that, provided countries comply with their announced fiscal consolidation programmes, built-in stabilizers and the Stability and Growth Pact are broadly compatible.


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Testo completo: http://www.iue.it/PUB/ECO2000-2.pdf

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