Autore: Barbieri, Giovanni A.
Titolo: Dal colera del 1854 al covid-19
Periodico: Annali del Dipartimento di metodi e modelli per l'economia, il territorio e la finanza
Anno: 2021 - Volume: 22 - Pagina iniziale: 149 - Pagina finale: 161 - Parte: online first

John Snow’s method of limiting contagion and death in the 1854 cholera epidemic is one of the foundations of modern epidemiology: a fine example of how data, statistical information and knowledge can make an essential contribution. Yet today, in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, what Snow did cannot be done. I refer to the Italian case (although some points can be easily generalised) to identify some obstacles and propose possible solutions: we do not know where the infected live and where they have become infected; we do not know their demographic and socio-economic characteristics; we do not have sufficient information on mobility; we do not make full use of the conceptual tools we have; the principle of privacy overrides the principle of public health. In the conclusions, I offer an example of what could be done if these obstacles were removed. In particular, I refer to a recent paper to illustrate the contribution that statistics and mathematical models could make to inform public opinion and to provide authorities with suggestions for more effective and equitable pandemic policies.


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SICI: 2385-0825(2021)22<149:DCD1AC>2.0.ZU;2-9
Testo completo: https://web.uniroma1.it/memotef/sites/default/files/Barbieri_onlinefirst_Note_2021.pdf

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