Autori: Giummolè, Federica , Vidoni, Paolo , Fonseca, Giovanni
Titolo: A note on simultaneous calibrated prediction intervals for time series
Periodico: Statistical methods & applications : Journal of the Italian Statistical Society
Anno: 2021 - Volume: 30 - Fascicolo: 1 - Pagina iniziale: 317 - Pagina finale: 330

This paper deals with simultaneous prediction for time series models. In particular, it presents a simple procedure which gives well-calibrated simultaneous prediction intervals with coverage probability close to the target nominal value. Although the exact computation of the proposed intervals is usually not feasible, an approximation can be easily attained by means of a suitable bootstrap simulation procedure. This new predictive solution is much simpler to compute than those ones already proposed in the literature, based on asymptotic calculations. Applications of the bootstrap calibrated procedure to AR, MA and ARCH models are presented.


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SICI: 1618-2510(2021)30:1<317:ANOSCP>2.0.ZU;2-#

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