Autori: Pennoni, Fulvia , Genge, Ewa
Titolo: Analysing the course of public trust via hidden Markov models: a focus on the Polish society
Periodico: Statistical methods & applications : Journal of the Italian Statistical Society
Anno: 2020 - Volume: 29 - Fascicolo: 2 - Pagina iniziale: 399 - Pagina finale: 425

We investigate public trust among the society by a statistical model suitable for panel data. At this aim, using trust’s levels measured from individual items recorded through a long-term survey we dispose of key variables with appropriate meaning. We account for the repeated and missing item responses by a hidden Markov model using longitudinal sampling weights. Since trust may be conceived as a psychological unobservable process of each person that fluctuates over time we consider observed time-varying and time-fixed individual covariates. We estimate the model parameters by a weighted log-likelihood through the Expectation–Maximization algorithm by using data collected in an East-Central European country like Poland. The latter is a country where the level of support to the national and international institutions is one of the lowest among the European member states. We apply a suitable algorithm based on the posterior probabilities to predict the best allocation to each latent typology. The proposed model is validated by generating out-of-sample responses and we find reasonable predictive values. We disentangle four hidden groups of Poles: discouraged, with no opinion, with selective trust and with fully public trust. We reveal an increasing number of people that are going to trust only some selected institutions over time


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SICI: 1618-2510(2020)29:2<399:ATCOPT>2.0.ZU;2-O

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