Autori: Giner, Céline , Antón, Jesús
Titolo: Incentivi alla produzione nelle politiche e nelle strategie di riduzione del rischio
Periodico: Economia & diritto agroalimentare
Anno: 2005 - Volume: 10 - Fascicolo: 2 - Pagina iniziale: 151 - Pagina finale: 189

Due to some recent policy developments in different OECD countries risk management is again relevant in discussions on agricultural policy1. The introduction of countercyclical payments, the increase in loan rates in the US 2002 Farm Act and public subsidies to insurance, have accentuated the risk reduction orientation of US farm policy. In the European Union together with the introduction of single farm payments, some EU countries, particularly Spain, have insurance programmes complementing the CAP. These developments once again raise the question of the pros and cons of different policy interventions to deal with risk in farming. The starting point of this study is to compare existing policy measures from the point of view of their impact on production and their ability to reduce risk. In particular, programs are compared from the double perspective of their effectiveness in reducing risk and the production incentives they create. An expected utility/certainty equivalent of prof it approach to production decisions is used. An initial joint distribution of prices and yields is constructed on the basis of empirical data. The farmer takes his decisions with a view to maximise the expected value of utility (from the distribution of outcomes) given risk reducing policy instruments. Each policy instrument changes the producer decisions and the risks he is willing to face. Each policy or strategy is analysed at a time. First some basic results are discussed on the basis of the optimisation conditions for each strategy or program. Then these results are illustrated using Monte-Carlo simulations in order to quantify the different magnitude of effects. Demand for the risk strategy is analysed first, when relevant, and then the production and risk reducing impacts are studied. Some simulations are also used to illustrate how the interaction between strategies and programs is crucial for evaluating its impact. Finally some illustrative estimates of the relative production impacts of different programs are provided. These results are presented with some sensitivity analysis about the assumptions on risk aversion. Further sensitivity analysis is presented in Annex 2.


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SICI: 1970-9498(2005)10:2<151:IAPNPE>2.0.ZU;2-C
Testo completo: http://www.fupress.net/index.php/eda/article/download/1153/1098

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