Autori: Conzo, Pierluigi , Zotti, Roberto , Bellucci, Davide
Titolo: Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior
Periodico: Università degli studi di Torino. Dip. Di Economia e Statistica Cognetti de Martiis. Working paper series
Anno: 2019 - Volume: 6 - Fascicolo: 15 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 78

Several studies document significant effects of real immigration on electoral outcomes. This paperfocuses, instead, on perceived immigration by looking at how local elections in Italy were affected by pre-electoral sea arrivals of refugees. While, upon arrival, refugees cannot freely go to the desired municipality, landing episodes are widely covered by the media before the elections, thereby increasing immigration salience. We develop an index of exposure that varies over time and across municipalities depending on the nationality of the incoming refugees. It captures the impact of perceived immigration on voting behavior, on top of the effects of real immigration measured by the local stock of immigrants and refugees. We find that in municipalities where refugees are more expected to arrive, participation decreases, whereas protest votes and support for extreme-right, populist and anti-immigration parties increases. Since these effects are stronger in areas better served by internet and located closer to the ports of disembark, electoral campaigns likely played a key role in boosting voters’ fear of future arrivals. Consistent with this, Twitter data show that immigration salience raises mainly in the election period and in highly-exposed provinces, while most arrivals occur months later.


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Testo completo: https://www.est.unito.it/do/home.pl/Download?doc=/allegati/wp2019dip/wp_15_2019.pdf

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