Autore: Waldmann, Robert
Titolo: Rational stubbornness?
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1995 - Fascicolo: 43 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 14

Professional forecasters may be reluctant to admit that their opinions have changed. Even if forecasters sole aim is to convince clients that they m ake accurate forecasts, this behavior m ay be rational. The pattern of forecasts may reveal valuable inform ation about the forecasters even before the outcom e is realised, for exampleable forecasters may revise forecasts less than less able forecasters. If so, rational forecasters would compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters.


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Testo completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/568

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