Autori: Waldmann, Robert , Ehrbeck, Tilman
Titolo: Is honesty always the best policy?
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1995 - Fascicolo: 44 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 24

Honesty may not be the best policy for professional forecasters if the pattern of forecasts reveals valuable information about the forecasters even before the outcome is realised. Rational forecasters will compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters. Simple models based on this argument imply that forecasts are biased in the direction of forecasts typical of able forecasters. Our models of strategic bias are rejected empirically as forecasts are biased in directions typical of forecasters with large mean squared forecast errors. This observation is consistent with behavioral explanations of forecast bias,


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Testo completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/569

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