Autori:
Marcellino, Massimiliano ![](http://www.bncf.firenze.sbn.it/img/logo-bncf.jpg)
,
Carriero, Andrea ![](http://www.bncf.firenze.sbn.it/img/logo-bncf.jpg)
,
Clark, Todd E. ![](http://www.bncf.firenze.sbn.it/img/logo-bncf.jpg)
Titolo:
Common Drifting Volatility in Large Bayesian VARsPeriodico:
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papersAnno:
2012 - Fascicolo:
8 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
67The estimation of large Vector Autoregressions with stochastic volatility using standard methods is computationally very demanding. In this paper we propose to model conditional volatilities as driven by a single common unobserved factor. This is justified by the observation that the pattern of estimated volatilities in empirical analyses is often very similar across variables. Using a combination of a standard natural conjugate prior for the VAR coefficients, and an independent prior on a common stochastic volatility factor, we derive the posterior densities for the parameters of the resulting BVAR with common stochastic volatility (BVAR-CSV). Under the chosen prior the conditional posterior of the VAR coefficients features a Kroneker structure that allows for fast estimation, even in a large system. Using US and UK data, we show that, compared to a model with constant volatilities, our proposed common volatility model significantly improves model fit and forecast accuracy. The gains are comparable to or as great as the gains achieved with a conventional stochastic volatility specification that allows independent volatility processes for each variable. But our common volatility specification greatly speeds computations.
Premi sulle icone
![](http://www.bncf.firenze.sbn.it/img/logo-bncf.jpg)
a fianco dei nomi per visualizzare i libri scritti dall'autore
X
Opere monografiche dal catalogo BNCF
Esportazione dati in Refworks (solo per utenti abilitati)
Record salvabile in Zotero