Autore:
Schinaia, Giuseppe Titolo:
Empirical data and mathematical structures in the epidemic modeling of parenteral hepatitis in ItalyPeriodico:
Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" - Dipartimento di Studi Geoeconomici, Linguistici, Statistici e Storici per l'Analisi regionale. Working papersAnno:
2005 - Fascicolo:
26 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
30Viral liver infections with parenteral transmission in Western countries
are mostly caused by hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses (HBV and HCV).
This paper presents a mathematical model that describes the history of
the spread of HBV and HCV infections in the general population in Italy.
The analysis of the model and the results also provide some new insight
into the mechanisms of the epidemics. The model structure is based on an
underlying analysis of the various effects of the infection progression
in the host, in order to incorporate into its parameters most of the
information available from the literature. Moreover, incidence and
prevalence curves of both HBV and HCV infections and of HBV/HCV
co-infections are generated and qualitative aspects of the epidemic,
such as possible endemic steady states and the basic reproduction
number, are also analyzed.
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