Autori: Marcellino, Massimiliano, Artis, Michael
Titolo: Fiscal solvency and fiscal forecasting in Europe
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1998 - Fascicolo: 2 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 41

This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in thè countries of thè prospective European Monetary Union: thè solvency of their governments finances; and thè accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending thè existing methodol-ogy of soìvency tests, thè paper fìnds that, with few exceptions, EU governments are insolvent, albeit debt/GDP ratios show signs of stabilizing. The accuracy of officiai short-term fiscal forecasts (those of thè OECD) is analysed using con-ventional techniques and found to be reassuring.





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