Autori: Marcellino, Massimiliano, Artis, Mike
Titolo: Fiscal Forecasting:The track record of thè IMF, OECD and EC
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1999 - Fascicolo: 22 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 31

We analyse thè relative performance of thè IMF. OECD and EC in forecasting thè government deficit, as a rat-io t-o GDP, for thè G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, soniotiraes supporting thè hypothesis of an asymnietric loss func-t-ion (i.e., of a preferente for underpredict-ion or overprediction), and pot-ential benefits from forecast pooling.




Testo completo: http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-22.pdf

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