Autori: Siniscalchi, Marciano, Battigalli, Pietropaolo
Titolo: Interactive beliefs and forward induction
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1999 - Fascicolo: 15 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 56

We provide an epistemic analysis of forward induction in games with complete and incomplete information. We suggest that forward induction may be usefully interpreted as a set of assumptions governing thè players' belief revision processes, and define a notion of strong belief to formalize these assumptions. Building on thè notion of strong belief, we provide an epistemic characterization of extensive-form rationalizability and thè intuitive criterion, as well as sufficient epistemic conditions for thè backward induction outcome. We also investigate thè robustness of rationalizability to slight payoff uncertainity




Testo completo: http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-15.pdf

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