Autori: Dury, Karen, Pina, Alvaro M.
Titolo: Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the stability pact.
Periodico: European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 2000 - Fascicolo: 3 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 45

We study the prospective operation of the Stability Pact by stochastic simulation. Using a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies, the Pact's provisions are formalized in detail, and alternative monetary and fiscal rules are compared. Rules are simple and credible, but a fiscal feedback parameter is made conditional on the stages of the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Under a baseline broadly consistent with national Stability Programmes, excessive deficits are overall rare and easily eliminated; their occurrence increases somewhat under inflation targeting: notices and sanctions only happen when corrective action by governments is considerably delayed.




Testo completo: http://www.iue.it/PUB/ECO2000-3.pdf

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