Autori: De Alwis, Tharindu P., Samadi, S. Yaser
Titolo: Stacking-based neural network for nonlinear time series analysis
Periodico: Statistical methods & applications : Journal of the Italian Statistical Society
Anno: 2024 - Volume: 33 - Fascicolo: 3 - Pagina iniziale: 901 - Pagina finale: 924

Stacked generalization is a commonly used technique for improving predictive accuracy by combining less expressive models using a high-level model. This paper introduces a stacked generalization scheme specifically designed for nonlinear time series models. Instead of selecting a single model using traditional model selection criteria, our approach stacks several nonlinear time series models from different classes and proposes a new generalization algorithm that minimizes prediction error. To achieve this, we utilize a feed-forward artificial neural network (FANN) model to generalize existing nonlinear time series models by stacking them. Network parameters are estimated using a backpropagation algorithm. We validate the proposed method using simulated examples and a real data application. The results demonstrate that our proposed stacked FANN model achieves a lower error and improves forecast accuracy compared to previous nonlinear time series models, resulting in a better fit to the original time series data.




SICI: 1618-2510(2024)33:3<901:SNNFNT>2.0.ZU;2-O

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