Autori: De Sio, Lorenzo, Mannoni, Elisabetta, Paparo, Aldo
Titolo: Anatomy of a Black Swan? Explaining the 2018 Italian Election Result through a Novel Issue Voting Model of Voter Transitions
Periodico: Comunicazione politica - ComPol
Anno: 2020 - Fascicolo: 2 - Pagina iniziale: 205 - Pagina finale: 230

The recent Italian general election has been regarded as historical, leading to what has beenlabelled as the first «populist» victory in a large West European country. However, this electionfits in a more general Western European trend with similar characteristics. In a contextof remarkably high volatility, challenger parties have proven successful by often proposing innovative,ideologically cross-cutting issue packages, exploiting a relatively low level of ideologicalstructuring of the electorate. In this paper, we investigate the importance of issues indetermining the electoral result in Italy. We rely on the Italian data of the Issue CompetitionComparative Project dataset. These country-specific innovative computer-assisted web interviewingsurveys, designed to allow comprehensive testing of issue-voting theories, include avery large number of issues, with measures of issue preference for positional issues, and, forboth positional and valence issues, measures of party credibility and issue priority. Based onthese data, we implement a novel approach for explaining the electoral result. We estimatemodels of voter transitions from and to various parties based on party-voter affinity in termsof party credibility and issue priority. We are able to assess the specific issues that were relevantin explaining the electoral successes and failures of different parties, thus constructingan integrated explanatory model of the overall electoral result.




SICI: 1594-6061(2020)2<205:AOABSE>2.0.ZU;2-G
Testo completo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/download/article/10.3270/97904
Testo completo alternativo: https://www.rivisteweb.it/doi/10.3270/97904

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