Autori:
Zoia, Maria Grazia,
Osti, Linda,
Nava, Consuelo RubinaTitolo:
Forecasting Domestic Tourism across Regional Destinations through MIDAS Regressions.Periodico:
Università degli studi di Torino. Dip. Di Economia e Statistica Cognetti de Martiis. Working paper seriesAnno:
2022 - Volume:
3 - Fascicolo:
7 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
37Over the years, benefits of domestic tourism have been shadowed by the exponential growth of international tourism, despite the former representing a crucial resource, especially at times of geopolitical instability and pandemics. Therefore, forecasting domestic tourism across different regions and sub-regions becomes fundamental to determine its viability as a substitution of international tourism during the COVID-19 pandemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of governmental incentive policies introduced for its promotion. To this aim, and given the availability of data sampled at different frequencies, mixed data-sampling (MIDAS) models have been employed to estimate and predict domestic tourism expenditures, arrivals, and overnight stays. To this aim, we consider the specific case of Italy for illustrative purposes.
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