Autori
Frale, CeciliaCacciotti, MarcoTeobaldo, SerenaTitolo
A new methodology for a quarterly measure of the output gapPeriodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Working paperAnno:
2013 - Volume:
08 - Fascicolo:
6 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
29This paper presents a new mixed frequency methodology to estimate output gaps and
potential output on a quarterly basis. The methodology strongly relies on the
production function method commonly agreed at the European level (D'Auria et. al.,
2010) but it significantly improves it allowing to assess the impact of real time forecast for GDP and other underlying variables. This feature of the model is particularly welcome in the current Italian budgetary framework which has foreseen the
introduction of the principle of a budget balance in structural terms in the Constitution.
By allowing to measure output gap with a quarterly span on the basis of recent
developments indicators, the methodology provides interesting hints on the cyclical
position of the economy in real time to be used for deriving cyclically-adjusted fiscal
aggregates.
SICI: 1972-411X(2013)08:6<1:ANMFAQ>2.0.ZU;2-A
Testo completo:
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