Titolo
Fatal SIR diseases and rational exemption to vaccination
Periodico
Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale 'A. Avogadro' : Facoltà di Economia - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Quantitativi "SEMEQ" - Quaderni
Anno: 2007 - Volume: 07 - Fascicolo: 19 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 34

A challenge to disease control in modern societies is the spread of rational exemption to vaccination, as a consequence of the rational comparison between the steadily declining risk from the disease, and the risks from the vaccine. Here we consider rational exemption in an SIR model with information dependent vaccination where individuals use information on the disease’s mortality as their information set. Using suitable assumptions on the dynamics of the population we show the dynamic implications of the interaction between rational exemption, current and delayed information, and the risk of death by the disease. In particular we illustrate the onset of the long cycles caused by rational exemption, when vaccination decisionsare based on delayed informations.



Testo completo: http://semeq.unipmn.it/files/quaderno%20n.19%20completo.pdf

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