Autore
Pradelli, Juan José

Titolo
Assessing the fiscal risk of budgetary projections in Italy
Periodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Note tematiche
Anno: 2009 - Volume: 5 - Fascicolo: 4 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 21

This note addresses the sources of fiscal risk -broadly defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from projections- as regard to the medium-term projections of Italy’s public debt that are regularly reported in budgetary planning documents (e.g. the RPP). An analysis of historical projection errors covering the 1996-2007 period suggests that: (i) on average, errors in projecting debt levels were negligible; (ii) over time, however, there was a tendency to overestimate debt and deficits in the late 1990s, and to underestimate them in the 2000s; and (iii) errors in projecting debt variations were heavily influenced by data revisions (which affect the growth-adjusted initial debt levels) and failures in predicting stock-flow adjustments. The note presents a debt projection for 2008-2013 in a hypothetical worst-case scenario that introduces fiscal risks. This scenario assumes the RPP 2009 budgetary projections are hit by unexpected shocks, whose magnitude is the standard deviation of historical projection errors.



Testo completo: http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/analisi_programmazione_economico/NT_n_4_2009_-_Assessing_the_Fiscal_Risk_of_Budgetary_Projections_in_Italy.pdf

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