Autore
Biraschi, PaoloTitolo
Searching for the optimal EMU fiscal rule: an ex-post analysis of the SPG reform proposal Periodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Working paperAnno:
2008 - Volume:
7 - Fascicolo:
7 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
42Over last decades the study of fiscal policy rules has attracted a growing attention from
researchers and policy-makers. The case of European Monetary Union is a clear example.
However, even before its inception, the Stability and Growth Pact has been a source of
inspiration for a large number of policy recommendations. The heated political and academic
debate intervened after the Ecofin Council’s decision on November 2003 and mostly concluded
in March 2005 with the Spring European Council’s conclusions has revealed the institutional
and theoretical weaknesses of EMU rule–based system. This paper provides an ex-post
analysis of the Pact by indicating a different qualitative and pragmatic approach to judge the
most relevant and known SGP reforms; furthermore, it highlights the direction along which any
modification of the Pact would have been successfully implemented and offers useful insights
also to test the robustness of the new SGP. After revisiting the main characteristics of a fully
effective rule-based framework and taking into account the specificity of EMU economic policy
set up, we evaluate in a systematic way, through a multivariate statistical analysis, about 100
proposals for reforming the SGP presented by professional academic and non-academic
economists prior to April 2005. Despite these large number of proposals, however, principal
component analysis outcomes show that only few reforms could have been effectively
considered a real improvement of the previous version of SGP, the others reflecting the
traditional dilemma between credibility and effectiveness aspects of budgetary rules.
SICI: 1972-411X(2008)7:7<1:SFTOEF>2.0.ZU;2-X
Testo completo:
http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/analisi_programmazione_economico/n.-7-2008---Searching-for-the-optimal-EMU-fiscal-rule1.pdfEsportazione dati in Refworks (solo per utenti abilitati)
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