Autori
Nenna, ManuelaBiraschi, PaoloGiammusso, FedericoPradelli, JuanCodogno, LorenzoTitolo
Are Italy's public finances sustainable? The role of demographics, productivity, and labour marketsPeriodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Working paperAnno:
2008 - Volume:
7 - Fascicolo:
6 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
32In light of the uncertainty of the effects of population ageing on growth and fiscal variables, it
is sensible to ask whether Italy’s public finances can achieve sustainability under the spending
pressure exerted by future demographic and macroeconomic developments. The paper
addresses this question by assessing long-term fiscal sustainability, following the commonlyagreed
European methodology, under alternative scenarios considering a variety of issues that
may have a bearing on Italy’s public finance conditions, namely, immigration, life expectancy,
female labour participation, and productivity growth. Despite the different hypotheses captured
by the alternative scenarios, the paper finds that projected debt-to-GDP ratios decrease over
time, as long as fiscal consolidation is achieved in the near future. It also shows a one-shot
debt-reduction strategy is not a credible substitute for a budgetary-adjustment strategy. The
paper concludes Italy’s public finances are sustainable and can deal with future spending
pressures resulting from the ageing population.
SICI: 1972-411X(2008)7:6<1:AIPFST>2.0.ZU;2-I
Testo completo:
http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/analisi_programmazione_economico/n.-6-2008---Are-Italy-s-public-finances-sustainable.pdfEsportazione dati in Refworks (solo per utenti abilitati)
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