Autori
Siniscalchi, Marciano
Battipagli, Pierpaolo

Titolo
Hierarchies of conditional beliefs and interactive epistemology in dynamic games
Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1998 - Fascicolo: 29 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 56

The epistemic analysis of solution concepts for dynamic games involves statements about the players' beliefs conditional upon different histories of play, their conditional beliefs about each other's conditional beliefs, etc. We construct a space of infinite (coherent) hierarchies of conditional probability systems, denned with respect to a fixed collection of relevant hypotheses concerning an external state (e.g. the strategy profile being played). Any (coherent) statement concerning the players' dispositions to hold interactive beliefs has a representation in our "universal" space. As an application, we derive results about common certainty of the opponent's rationality conditonal on an arbitrary collection of histories in multistage games with observed actions and (possibly) incomplete information.




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