Autore
Pastori, Claudio

Titolo
Industrial production forecast through the business climate indicator
Periodico
Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" - Dipartimento di Studi Geoeconomici, Linguistici, Statistici e Storici per l'Analisi regionale. Working papers
Anno: 2003 - Fascicolo: 19 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 25

In this paper, we deepen the methodology for the estimation of a Business Climate Indicator (BCI), built only on the results of industrial business survey. We suppose here the presence of a latent structure lying our data. We shall employ dynamic factorial analysis and test its efficiency by means of appropriate statistic tests. These models shall be compared to static factor models, that is, to models which do not consider factorial dynamics and its relative idiosyncratic components, and the indicators obtained shall be used to forecast the evolution of Italian industrial production




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