Autori
Morana, Claudio
Bagliano, Fabio Cesare
Golinelli, Roberto

Titolo
Inflation modelling in the Euro area.
Periodico
Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale 'A. Avogadro' : Facoltà di Economia - Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Metodi Quantitativi "SEMEQ" - Quaderni
Anno: 2002 - Volume: 02 - Fascicolo: 17 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 36

The aim of this paper is to provide econometric tools to analyse and forecast inflation dynamics in the Euro area, starting from a small-scale cointegrated VAR system. In order to supply information on the long-run inflation trend, a forward-looking "core" inflation measure is constructed. This measure is based on long-run relations among major macroeconomic variables, bearing the interpretation of a long-run inflation forecast. The proposed measure may be particularly suitable for the "two-pillar" monetary policy strategy of the ECB which focuses on medium-term inflation prospects.




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