Autore
Spataro, Luca

Titolo
The Choice of Retiring in Italy: an Application (and Extension) of the Option Value Model.
Periodico
Università degli studi di Pisa. Dipartimento di Scienze economiche. Studi e Ricerche
Anno: 2000 - Fascicolo: 59 - Pagina iniziale: 1

Using the Bank of Italy Survey on Income and Wealth of Italian Households, we adopt the “option value” framework to estimate the determinants of retirement choices of male employees, before the early nineties social security reforms. We …nd out that the one period version of the model improves the likelihood of the estimations if compared with some probit models. However, evidence of a “puzzle” involving excess of retirement at age 60 is produced. Also an extension of the model is presented whereby it is possible to obtain a prediction of the individual retirement expectations: some tests carried out over the actual and the predicted distributions of the expected retirement age show that the extended-model fitting improves when older individuals are progressively selected, leading to the conclusion that the decision of retiring is probably “rationally” assessed and taken only after a certain age.



Testo completo: http://www-dse.ec.unipi.it/spataro.pdf

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