Autore
Nordström, Martin

Titolo
A forecast evaluation of the Riksbank's policy-rate projections
Periodico
Economic notes
Anno: 2020 - Volume: 49 - Fascicolo: 3 - Pagina iniziale: 12167 - Pagina finale: 12167

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of the policy-rate path published by the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank. Using data from 2007 to 2019, I find that the Riksbank's forecast has been relatively inaccurate compared to a forecast inferred from market pricing. My analysis indicates that this result is primarily driven by events during the period 2010–2014. This coincides with a period during which the Riksbank arguably “leaned against the wind” and a potential link is discussed in the paper



SICI: 0391-5026(2020)49:3<12167:AFEOTR>2.0.ZU;2-1

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