Autore
Pradelli, Juan José

Titolo
Assessing short-term effects of crisis and policy interventions on potential growth and public finances in the eu: a methodology based on forecast revisions
Periodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Note tematiche
Anno: 2009 - Volume: 10 - Fascicolo: 11 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 54

The note assesses the short-term effects of crisis and policy interventions on potential growth and public finances by exploiting the information embedded in macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts elaborated by the European Commission. In order to identify channels of transmission of the crisis and quantify their corresponding impact on GDP and public finances, the revisions of forecast concerning the variables of interest are mechanically broken down into revisions of the underlying determinants. Short-term losses of potential output mainly result from contracting real investment and rising unemployment. As a consequence of the crisis, public finances deterioration results from the workings of automatic stabilisers and the discretionary anti-crisis measures undertaken, but it also entails a weakening in the structural determinants of budget balances.



Testo completo: http://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/note_tematiche/NT_n._11-2009_Assessing_short_term_effects_of_crisis_and_policy_interventions.pdf

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