Autori
Lopez, Humberto
Ortega, Eva
Ubide, Angel

Titolo
Dating and forecasting the spanisc business cycle
Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1997 - Fascicolo: 5 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 27

This paper constructs a composite index of coincident economic indicators (CEI), which tracks the state of the Spanish economy better than real GDP, and provides a rigorous dating of the Spanish business cycle turning points. Four different composite leading indicators of the Spanish business cycle are suggested for forecasting the CEI. We find that the main forces underlying the overall state of the economy are consumer expectations and unemployment, while the production side of the economy contributes less. Our proposed composite leading indicators are able to predict the recovery of the Spanish economy which started at the end of 1994 as well as the slowdown that followed afterwards



Testo completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/614

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