Autori
Artis, Mike
Krolzig, Hans-Martin
Toro, Juan

Titolo
The european business cycle
Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1999 - Fascicolo: 24 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 43

This paper deals with thè existence of a conimon European growth cycle anc its identification. Based on thè analysis of some descriptive statistics in th< time and frequency domain there is clear evidence of comovement in outpu growth among European countries. Univariate Markov switching autoregres sions (MS-AR) are used for individuai countries in order to detect changes n thè mean growth rate of industriai productìon. The smoothed probabili ties ob tained from these models give support to thè previous descriptive statistics re garding thè possibility of inferring acommon European cycle from modellili^ jointly thè industriai production indices of thè nine countries under study. Ai MS-VAR model is used to identify thè common cycle in Europe and thè resulti confimi thè existence of such a cycle. The European business cycle is date( on thè basis of thè regime probabili ties, and thè contribution of thè Europeai business cycle to thè individuai country cycles is investigated.An appendix in cludes a similar analysis for GDP. JEL Classification: E32, F43, F47, C32.



Testo completo: http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-24.pdf

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