Autore
Barrell, RayTitolo
How important are automatic stabilizers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment.Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papersAnno:
2000 - Fascicolo:
2 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
41In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies. Automatic stabilizers make output volatility fall in all countries, but such decreases, ranging from 5 to 18 per cent, are smaller than commonly believed, and display significant international variation. We also find that, provided countries comply with their announced fiscal consolidation programmes, built-in stabilizers and the Stability and Growth Pact are broadly compatible.
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