Autore
Maravall, Augustin

Titolo
Short-term analysis of macroeconomic time series
Periodico
European University Institute of Badia Fiesolana (Fi). Department of Economics - Working papers
Anno: 1993 - Fascicolo: 15 - Pagina iniziale: 1 - Pagina finale: 30

The paper deals with statistical treatment of macroeconomic data for short-run economic analysis, monitoring and control. The main applications are short-term forecasting and unobserved components estimation, including trend and cycle estimation, and, most often, seasonal adjustment. The paper briefly reviews some of the recent developments in the field, both at the methodological and applied levels. Then, it is argued that a fairly general approach, based on signal extraction methods and Arima models, will gradually spread as the dominant methodology. The last section contains a word of caution, and illustrates the danger of applying these short-term statistical tools to long-term economic analysis.



Testo completo: http://hdl.handle.net/1814/456

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