Template-type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Bellucci, Davide  
Author-Email: davide.bellucci@unito.it
Author-Name: Conzo, Pierluigi 
Author-Email: pierluigi.conzo@unito.it
Author-Name: Zotti, Roberto 
Author-Email: roberto.zotti@unito.it 
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Turin
Author-Workplace-Homepage: http://www.est.unito.it/
Title: Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior.
Abstract: Several studies document significant effects of real immigration on electoral outcomes. This paperfocuses, instead, on perceived immigration by looking at how local elections in Italy were affected
by pre-electoral sea arrivals of refugees. While, upon arrival, refugees cannot freely go to the desired
municipality, landing episodes are widely covered by the media before the elections, thereby
increasing immigration salience. We develop an index of exposure that varies over time and across
municipalities depending on the nationality of the incoming refugees. It captures the impact of
perceived immigration on voting behavior, on top of the effects of real immigration measured by the
local stock of immigrants and refugees. We find that in municipalities where refugees are more
expected to arrive, participation decreases, whereas protest votes and support for extreme-right,
populist and anti-immigration parties increases. Since these effects are stronger in areas better served
by internet and located closer to the ports of disembark, electoral campaigns likely played a key role
in boosting voters’ fear of future arrivals. Consistent with this, Twitter data show that immigration
salience raises mainly in the election period and in highly-exposed provinces, while most arrivals
occur months later. 
Length: pages 78
Creation-Date: 2019-06
File-URL: https://www.est.unito.it/do/home.pl/Download?doc=/allegati/wp2019dip/wp_15_2019.pdf
File-Format: Application/PDF
Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:201915