Autori: Piergallini, Alessandro, Postigliola, Michele
Titolo: Politiche di bilancio e debito pubblico nella storia italiana: un modello non lineare
Periodico: Annali del Dipartimento di metodi e modelli per l'economia, il territorio e la finanza
Anno: 2019 - Volume: 20 - Pagina iniziale: 63 - Pagina finale: 72

Are Italy’s primary-surplus policies compatible with the sustainability of government debt? We address the question by examining historical budget data in post-unification Italy, over the 150 years from 1862 to 2012. Controlling for temporary output, temporary spending and world war-time periods in assessing whether primary surpluses significantly reacted to changes in debt, we find the following results: (i) the hypothesis of nonlinearity in the surplus-debt relationship significantly outperforms the hypothesis of linearity; (ii) there exists a threshold level in the debt-GDP ratio, approximately equal to 111%, above which Italian fiscal policy makers are concerned with corrective actions to avoid insolvency; (iii) the robustly positive reaction of primary surpluses to debt beyond the trigger point ensures fiscal sustainability




SICI: 2385-0825(2019)20<63:PDBEDP>2.0.ZU;2-X
Testo completo: https://web.uniroma1.it/memotef/sites/default/files/Annali-2019_63-72_PiergalliniA_PostigliolaM.pdf

Esportazione dati in Refworks (solo per utenti abilitati)

Biblioteche ACNP che possiedono il periodico