Autori
Galli, RobertoFrale, CeciliaPericoli, Filippo MariaTitolo
Bank lending in a cointegrated VAR modelPeriodico
Ministero dell'Economia e delle Finanze. Dipartimento del Tesoro. Working paperAnno:
2013 - Volume:
09 - Fascicolo:
8 - Pagina iniziale:
1 - Pagina finale:
26This paper aims at identifying the link between financial markets and the real sector of the economy.Following the literature on the topic, we select a small set of variables representing the principal financial and real dynamics observed for the Italian economy. As a first result, we find cointegration among the chosen set of variables. Thus we specify and estimate a Vector Error Correction Model which captures
both the long-run and the short-term dynamics of the multivariate system. The main innovation of this work lies in investigating the link between lending and growth at a monthly frequency. Moreover, we
allow the model to include a structural break due to the latest economic and financial crisis. The model obtained represents an innovative forecasting tool for improving the knowledge, nowcasting and shortterm forecasting of the business cycle by exploiting shocks originating from the lending market that propagate to the real economy.
SICI: 1972-411X(2013)09:8<1:BLIACV>2.0.ZU;2-E
Testo completo:
http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/analisi_progammazione/working_papers/WP_N_8-2013.pdfEsportazione dati in Refworks (solo per utenti abilitati)
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